Saturday, March 18, 2006

Chinese Revolution: Boon or Bane?

Couple of days ago, I was in class training for some company software. The trainer was a well traveled person, who had made trips all over the world, including 15 trips or more to China. He was set to make his first trip to India (Pune, as a matter of fact) and was curious to know how India would differ from his experiences in China. I gave him a general debriefing on what to expect, and what not to do. To which he gave a very curious response. "It seems, people in India are very happy". He went on to say that he sees the downfall of the Communist government in China within the next 10-15 yrs, and a people's revolution will rise. "The Chinese people are awakening to the possibilities", he said "I don't think they will bear with the atrocities". Sitting on the shitpot today, I was reading this story and my mind went back to what he said the other day. What I also started think about was this:

Can the world afford a free China right now?


Personally, I believe in the freedom of the individual and so a society where the citizens are not allowed even basic freedoms is something I cannot tolerate at all. But we must keep one thing in mind. The world functions as it does right now, because China is ruled with an iron fist. Chinese "reforms" may not help the Chinese people, but John Smith from Louisville, KY can buy a house with a 1-acre backyard on a 0% down loan, thanks to the Chinese investment of American government bonds. China now is home to a huge chunk of American manufacturing, a lot more than India does. China runs the American (and therefore by default the world economy) and does one really want to disturb that?

Not just that, answer me this: When did the last free elections take place in China? Never, if you ask me. If the Communists fall, there will be a huge problem, simply because there is no non-communist who is ready to take the reins of government. As India has shown, it takes time for the people to learn to govern themselves. Nehru was a great leader, but I doubt you can call him a great administrator. It has taken India 50+ yrs to get to where it is, and I bet it's not even 50% there. The pan-Asian countries (Japan, Korea) may be rich, but I doubt you can call them free in the democratic sense. The Japanese are still ruled by the royals, while the Korean boom was brought upon by military rule. Since the Communists in China suppress any threats to their administration, when they DO eventually fall, there will be no one to take control of the government. The first few democratically elected governments will be making humungously populist moves to pacify their voter base, the multi nationals will be threatened, and the world economy will be watching from the edge of a precipice.

You think the US with a 3 trillion dollar debt can afford that? So much for supporting the rise of freedom all over world.

1 comment:

T 1 said...

they raised the current debt limit, their trade deficit keeps on increasing, so what else keeps USD as the monetary standard.