Monday, February 28, 2011

Things I think I think - World Cup edition

As Pranab Mukherjee lays awake at night wondering how much of their hard earned money he will need next year, a few million people have more important things on their mind.

 

I am one such.

 

-          I will be extremely surprised if India wins this World Cup. Somewhere deep inside, I think Dhoni and Kirsten know that as well. Not just because we bowled the way we did against England, but our bowling needs responsive pitches. Except for Zaheer Khan, our bowling department is not quite fluent in the skills section. Their role is more to trundle along and ensure the ball goes 22 yards, hopefully on a single bounce. Outwitting the batsman is not really our forte.

 

-          The Super Over is a mighty fine way to break a tie in a T20 game. But not quite sure the team bowling second will be mentally ready to pick up the bat for 1 over. Especially after all the excitement they would have gone through to tie the game in the first place, having been in the field for close to 4 hours. Maybe we already had our one tied game for this world cup, but I'm just saying it's not a fair contest.

 

-          Munaf Patel's one short run was the difference between 338 and 339. It was the difference between 1 point and 2 points. It might just be the difference between playing Sri Lanka and Pakistan in the quarters.

 

-          Right now, if I were Dhoni, I'd rather play Sri Lanka given how much we've played them over the last 3 years.

 

-          With the Netherlands and Ireland both running fancied teams very close in their first games, Group B is tough to predict. But my lineup from the group is South Africa, India, England, the winner of Bangladesh/West Indies. (in that order). I pick India above England, since I see both losing to SA, while beating the rest. NRR is something that India traditionally has been an expert in.

 

-          Group A is much easier. Australia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (in that order). The fourth team doesn't really matter. Speaking of which, Sri Lanka ought to be ashamed that they're going to be third in a group which has been basically designed to suit their needs.
 
-    Sometime in the afternoon of March 20, MS Dhoni and Darren Sammy will go out to the toss knowing exactly what they need to do, to avoid playing Australia / Pakistan / Sri Lanka in the first knock-out game. None of the other teams will have that opportunity. That is about as unfair as it can get. The ICC, in its greed to maximize revenue, has sold 13 teams down the river, so that the sponsors can get maximum value by having India play on a Sunday.

 

-          And speaking of stupid, as Humphrey Bogart once said, "Of all the gin joints in all the cities in the world, she had to come to mine!!" (or something like that), of all the appeals against all the teams, the stupidest UDRS decision comes against India. Which is not so bad. Because, for all it's worth, the UDRS is more an outcome of the ICC being seen to do something, rather than the ICC actually doing something. If you're doing something so that it helps your image, you're doing it for the wrong reasons. I don't know what Dhoni means when he says "adulteration of human intellect and technology", but the whole thing was stupid.

 

-          Don't ask me what the ICC should do instead of the UDRS. I don't get paid enough money to decide such things. But if Sharad Pawar were to come to me with an offer, I'd surely think about it.

 

-          Coming back to the World Cup, here are the reasons based on what I have seen why the following teams will not win it:

 

o   Australia: Not enough experience post Ponting and Clarke in the batting order. Plus not sure about Steve Smith as a No. 7 who can make a potential 300 score into a 350.

o   Bangladesh: They seem focused on reaching the quarter finals. I haven't heard a single Bangladesh player saying they're here to win the World Cup. They'd just rather beat India, England and everyone else in the group. When they don't believe themselves, why should I bother?

o   England: You can't not win a game where you have 60 –odd to win in the last 10 overs with 8 wickets in hand and hope to have a chance of winning the cup.

o   India: See above. Plus they don't have anyone who is guaranteed to score 25 runs at a strike rate of 125 and then bowl 10 overs at less than 7 per over.  Whatever Yusuf Pathan provides is a bonus.

o   New Zealand: Vettori would rank alongside Churchill and Napoleon if they were to win.

o   Pakistan: Just too many knock out games given their unpredictability.

o   South Africa: I know I am being picky, but their 6, 7 and 8 lineup (du Plessis, Botha, Peterson) doesn't quite inspire. They DO have the best batsman (Amla), best allrounder (Kallis), best bowler (Steyn) and the best fielder (Duminy) though.

o   Sri Lanka: They're playing with 10 men on current ability, and Murali on sentiment alone. You pretty much need to take any two out of Dilshan, Prince Kumara or Captain Mahela on the cheap, and you win the game.

o   West Indies: Their fortunes just changed when Dwayne Bravo turned his knee.

o   The rest: If you truly, madly, deeply believe that one of them will win the world cup, and they really do, you my friend should be getting into the soothsayer business. We haven't had a good one since Nostradamus.
 
In short, I don't know who will win.

 

-          So, given this, my pick is:

o   Quarter Finals: Australia – Bangladesh/WI, Pakistan – England, Sri Lanka – India, Doesn't matter – South Africa

o   Semi Finals: Australia – India, England – South Africa

o   Finals: Australia – South Africa

o   Winner: Australia.
(Based on the "Federal" theorem of sports named jointly after Roger Federer & Rafael Nadal. Unless someone beats them, there's no way anyone else is winning the Cup. ) The last time they lost a World Cup game, Virat Kohli was in 5th standard..

 

Saturday, February 12, 2011

As I approach yet another Sunday...

How many of these questions can you answer?

-          Do you know what is a Trunk call?

-          Does the name Salma Sultan or Komal G.B. Singh have any resonance??

-          Can you sing "Mile Sur Mera Tumhara"?

-          In how many languages?

-          Does the phrase "Afternoon News for the Hearing Impaired" bring to you an image of a Sunday afternoon, with  picture-in-picture newscast with a nice looking lady reading in the inset window, and a fat (ok, chubby) lady talking in sign language?

-          Samuha Gaan – ring a bell?? A choir of gents on one side dressed in Khadi kurtas and cotton trousers and ladies on the other side happily singing songs on National Integration..

-          Does the phrase "Deepika Ji" immediately bring back memories of "Nirma Super"??

-          Do you have ANY idea what I am talking about??

 

Chances are you are roughly my age and were in India in the late 1980s

 

This is what my normal Sunday looked like in those days:

08:00 – 08:45:     Wake up

08:45 – 09:00:     Make sure you have electricity

09:00 – 10:00:     Cartoon on TV. (Mickey & Donald show, He-Man, Gayab Aaya, etc.)

10:00 – 11:00:     Mahabharata

11:00 – 12:00:     Do other stuff like have a bath, breakfast, etc

12:00 – 12:30:     Street Hawk, (subsequently replaced by Knight Rider)

12:30 – 16:00:     Lunch, afternoon nap, homework if applicable

16:00 – 16:30:     World of Sports (optional, but all my friends and I watched it. Showed stuff like Spanish football and the Tour de France)

16:30 – 17:30:     Vikram aur Vetaal; Spiderman

17:30 – 19:30:     Go out to play with your friends

19:30 – 20:30:     Go home, wash up, dinner

20:30 – 21:00:     Do something, (anything) while the elders watch Samachar

21:00 – 21:30:     Hope there's something nice on TV

21:30 -           :       Sleep

 

Ok, the details might be varying a little bit here and there, but I'm sure if you're roughly my age and Indian, you probably find yourself at least nodding at some of the things written above.. There are so many memories, which we have that applies to almost the entire generation..  

 

I know it's tough to say for sure, but you can argue that regardless of whether you were rich or poor, Hindu or Parsi, boy or girl, in India circa 1980s, you had essentially the same choices in front of you. In most cases, the number of choices was more than zero, and less than two.. Everyone had the same weekend, and everyone had the same Monday morning recollections of the weekend.. You could relate to one another, essentially because regardless of who you were, you pretty much had the same stuff going on in your house.. Voices were less shrill, and the need to sell was minimal.. Lalita ji and her son Sanju sold Rin (Thoda sa Rin), and that was that..

 

Speaking of which, when was the last time you heard the phrase "National Integration"??

 

A parrot named Annika folds her hands every time we open the fridge in her presence and goes "Thank you God for everything!!!"

 

I have half a mind to teach her to say "Thank you Manmohan Singh"

Friday, February 04, 2011

I am a concerned Indian, and I am not going to stand for this bullshit again..

I received this email in my inbox today:
*****

Dear Friends!
Petrol in Pakistan Rs17 per ltr
Malaysia Rs 18 per ltr
In India it's Rs.65per ltr

Why is there a difference within India itself? World Market? CRUDE Oil is not the reason for this. 

It's all Gain for private owners? As we are the general public, or Common Man as R.K.Laxman wud hv said, we have to raise our voice, let's raise thru Emails.

Forward this to all Indians who care.


IT HAS BEEN CALCULATED THAT IF EVERYONE DID NOT PURCHASE A DROP OF PETROL FOR ONE DAY AND ALL AT THE SAME TIME, THE OIL COMPANIES WOULD CHOKE ON THEIR STOCKPILES.


AT THE SAME TIME IT WOULD HIT THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY WITH A NET LOSS OVER 4.6 BILLION DOLLARS WHICH AFFECTS THE BOTTOM LINES OF THE OIL COMPANIES. 


THEREFORE "Feb.14th" HAS BEEN FORMALLY DECLARED "STICK IT UP THEIR BEHIND " DAY AND THE PEOPLE OF THIS NATION SHOULD NOT BUY A SINGLE DROP OF PETROL THAT DAY.


THE ONLY WAY THIS CAN BE DONE IS IF YOU FORWARD THIS E-MAIL TO AS MANY PEOPLE AS YOU CAN AND AS QUICKLY AS YOU CAN TO GET THE WORD OUT. WAITING ON THE GOVERNMENT TO STEP IN AND CONTROL THE PRICES IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. WHAT HAPPENED TO THE REDUCTION AND CONTROL IN PRICES THAT THE ARAB NATIONS PROMISED TWO WEEKS AGO?

REMEMBER ONE THING, NOT ONLY IS THE PRICE OF PETROL GOING UP BUT AT THE SAME TIME AIRLINES ARE FORCED TO RAISE THEIR PRICES, TRUCKING COMPANIES ARE FORCED TO RAISE THEIR PRICES WHICH AFFECTS
PRICES ON EVERYTHING THAT IS SHIPPED. THINGS LIKE FOOD, CLOTHING, BUILDING SUPPLIES MEDICAL SUPPLIES ETC. WHO PAYS IN THE END? WE DO!



WE CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE. IF THEY DON'T GET THE MESSAGE AFTER ONE DAY, WE WILL DO IT AGAIN AND AGAIN. 


SO DO YOUR PART AND SPREAD THE WORD. FORWARD THIS EMAIL TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW. MARK YOUR CALENDARS AND MAKE* * *Feb* 14th  A DAY THAT THE CITIZENS SAY "ENOUGH IS ENOUGH"

We forward so many junk email to many of our friends, now let us do
it for some useful cause to cut down the price of the petrol .. ....


REMEMBER : *Feb * 14th

*********** 

I am trying to calculate the number of instances where the logic is not only flawed, but downright insulting to anyone who actually bothers to think..

 

So let's start from the top:

 

First and foremost – Who decided for me that Feb 14th is this "Stick it up Ambani's backside day"?? Did I ask you to?? If you and your college friends have decided this sitting in your college canteen while having your chai-samosa, let me also tell you that when I was your age, I believed that the world would have peace one day and global hunger would be a thing of the past.. Nothing of that sort happened, nor is it likely to anytime soon.. If you are requesting me to join in your crusade, you might want to lower your volume a bit.. I simply don't share your outrage..

 

Here's why:

 

1.      Prices of Crude Oil remain the same worldwide.. As I type this, price of crude oil is $103 / barrel, which, post processing, leads to roughly 75 Litres of petrol (http://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/fuel-consumption/gas-price.htm).

 

Let's say our input raw material is worth $103 = Rs. 4532 / 75 L = INR 60.00 per litre..

 

The rough estimate for converting Crude Oil to petrol goes something like this. (Again: http://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/fuel-consumption/gas-price1.htm)

·     Taxes: 15%

·     Distribution and Marketing: 11%

·     Refining: 7%

·     Crude oil: 67%

In short, if your input crude is at INR 60 per litre, the going rate of petrol should be "crudely" at INR 90 per litre..

 

So, in short if the going rate of petrol is INR 65, then the government is paying INR 25 out of the total bill. Thus, the comparison with Pakistan and Malaysia is, at best, stretching the imagination, since what that simply says is that those governments are losing more money than ours.. I'd rather be in India right now.. Just to compare, at this time, the petrol rate in Germany is 1.47 euros/litre, roughly equates to INR 90!!! There must be a connection somewhere..

 

2.      What Oil Companies are we talking about?? I am an Indian that "cares", and from what I know, we purchase all our oil from the government and its subsidiaries.. Does the patriot want us to cause a loss to our own government??? But I agree, not buying fuel today can cause a dent to the OPEC which provides us the oil. But if I don't buy today, I have to buy tomorrow.. Since the rest of the world has not helped us with this boycott of fuel (even if everyone else helps out, I am sure Pakistan and Malaysia have no reason to, at their rates of fuel!!), all our abstinence has done is that we have not had access to the fuel, but the fuel has been depleted anyway.. Since now the total amount of oil available in the world has depleted, chances are it is going to be more expensive.. So, the fuel I needed today, is worth more tomorrow than it was today.. So, all I have done is paid more for, essentially, the same thing..

 

Nice way to indeed stick it up someone's behind..

 

3.      I don't recall the "Arab" countries promising anything two weeks ago.. Seriously, I read the papers every day.. I don't recall reading any such pledge.. Given the turmoil in Egypt / Tunisia if anything the Arab countries need higher oil prices to provide more subsidies to their people to prevent them from rioting.. Case in point, this is what I DID read last week http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hJ5YaJomrAvW9R4grf5sXiNBKxRA?docId=CNG.3a4459421ecb447810df126b36e389f3.341 :

"The parliament of Kuwait on Wednesday unanimously passed legislation to grant cash and free food to Kuwaiti citizens totalling over $5 billion to mark national occasions.

The grants, made last week by Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, stipulate paying 1,000 dinars ($3,580) (INR 1.6 lakhs) to each Kuwaiti citizen plus free distribution of essential food items for 14 months"

If we were Kuwaiti, we'd stand to make INR 4.8 lakhs for just the 3 of us!!

Incidentally, Egypt is not a member of OPEC, but Kuwait is.. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OPEC

Speaking of OPEC members, 6 out of the original 13 members (Indonesia, Iran, Ecuador, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Angola) are non-Arab countries. Other major oil producers are: Russia, USA (Alaska), Norway & Canada. Again, none of the above are Arab.. So, calling them Arabs is kind of insulting, don't you think??

Agreed, we do need to reduce our dependence on oil, but abstaining from oil may not be the answer..
So here are things you might be interested in doing on Feb 14th :

-          Travel by PMT bus.. or PMPML if you will.. Since the plan is for Valentine's Day, convince your date that she may be sweating, but at least she's sticking it to the big oil companies!!! You could even try using the bicycle, but if you are, make sure your date doesn't weigh too much..

-          Reduce your use of electricity and electrical devices. Switch off your refrigerators, your desktop computers, television sets.. While you're at it, try taking the stairs instead of the lifts.. Do not charge your cell phones that day as well.

-          Don't complain if your electricity is switched off.. You're using too much of it anyway..

-          Try not to buy to buy from Reliance Fresh or go to the malls.. These guys use large oil guzzling trucks to transport stuff across the country.. Instead, buy straight from a farm.. But do remember to travel by PMPML..

-          Definitely do not travel by plane.. Not today, not on the 14th, not ever!!!

And while you're actually listening to me, here's what else you could do:

-          Try not to insult my intelligence by questioning my patriotism ("Indians who care") or influencing my emotions (Where does R.K. Laxman come in all this??)

-          Try not to create fake outrage through entire sentences in UPPER CASE.. There's enough screaming and shouting anyway..

-          Try not to write such long emails.. Remember, I can write them too!!